FC Koln survives second Bundesliga season – a rare achievement

On June 23 2026, Andreas Breuer published an analysis showing that the second year after promotion is often successful for 1. FC Koln. While 43 % of promoted clubs fell back immediately up to 2025/26, only 19 % dropped after the second season in the second division. Koln has repeatedly confirmed this pattern.

Why the second year can be tougher

An old football saying claims the second season is the toughest. The data contradicts the myth: since 2000, promoted clubs on average avoided relegation for three seasons. For Koln, after the 1999/00 promotion under Ewald Lienen, the team secured safety with a 10th‑place finish. Yet in 2001/02 a negative run led to relegation – the only time in club history.

Which promotions have lasted long?

Following the 2003 and 2005 promotions, Koln failed in the first year despite managers like Friedhelm Funkel, Marcel Koller, Uwe Rapolder and Hans‑Peter Latour. Stability arrived only in the second season after the 2008 return: Zvonimir Soldo (then Zdravko Kovačević) turned a one‑point start in five games into a 13th‑place finish with 38 points. The result showed that managing a diverse squad is essential.

How recent promotions shift the balance

The 2014 promotion gave Peter Stöger a historic season: a 43 % points ratio and ninth place – the first such finish in 24 years. Two years later, 2016/17, he led the team with Sebastian Horn, Lukas Heintz, Niklas Höger and Jannes Hector into the Europa League. Yet 2018 brought another drop after four years in the top flight.

What does this mean for the future?

The latest second season in 2020/21 after the 2019 promotion ended dramatically: Koln fought for every point to break the supposed curse. Breuer’s statistics suggest the second year isn’t inevitable doom, provided the club maintains a clear transfer plan and steady leadership. For supporters, that means hope – upcoming promotions could turn into lasting success.